Is Now the Right Time to Buy? A Look at Canada's 2026 Housing Market

Zach Silverman | March 17, 2026

A Deep Dive into the 2026 Canadian Real Estate Landscape

For many Canadians, the dream of homeownership has felt like a moving target. After years of market volatility, shifting interest rates, and economic uncertainty, you might be wondering: is 2026 finally the year to make a move?

It's the biggest financial question for many households, and the answer isn't a simple yes or no. It depends on your personal circumstances, financial readiness, and where you are in the country. Let's break down the key factors shaping Canada's 2026 housing market so you can decide if now is the right time for you.

The National Picture: A Market in Transition

After a period of correction, Canada's housing market is showing signs of a gradual recovery, but it's not the frenzied pace we saw during the pandemic. The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) forecasts a 5.1% increase in home sales in 2026, driven by pent-up demand from buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines.

However, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) notes that sales will likely remain below historical averages, with the market facing headwinds from a slower economy, modest income growth, and elevated unemployment levels.

What to Expect in 2026

  • National Home Sales: Recovery is underway with a 5.1% increase expected, driven by pent-up demand. However, sales will still remain below historical highs as economic uncertainty continues to weigh on buyer confidence.
  • National Average Price: Prices are forecast to rise modestly by 2.8% to $698,881. This represents steady, sustainable growth rather than the sharp spikes we saw during the pandemic years.
  • New Construction: Housing starts are projected to decline as developers face high construction costs, weaker demand, and rising inventories of unsold units. Fewer new homes being built could put upward pressure on prices in the long term.
  • Mortgage Rates: Variable rates are holding steady while fixed rates remain uncertain. The current rate environment offers some stability, but affordability continues to be a key challenge for many buyers.

Interest Rates: The Elephant in the Room

Mortgage rates have been a major factor for homebuyers. The good news is that the Bank of Canada has held its policy interest rate at 2.25% in early 2026, providing some stability for variable-rate mortgages. However, fixed rates may still see some upward pressure.

Many homeowners who secured ultra-low rates during the pandemic are now facing renewals at higher rates, which is tightening household budgets. For new buyers, the current rate environment is a significant improvement from the highs of 2024, but affordability remains a key challenge.

Regional Deep Dive: Where Are the Opportunities?

Canada's housing market is not a monolith. The story is very different depending on where you live.

Ontario & British Columbia: The Rebound

These two provinces, which saw the most significant downturns, are now poised for the strongest rebounds. CREA projects sales to increase by over 8% in both Ontario and BC in 2026. This is largely driven by pent-up demand from buyers who have been waiting for prices to stabilize.

However, the CMHC warns that housing starts in Ontario are projected to fall to near two-decade lows, which could put upward pressure on prices in the long run.

The Prairies & Quebec: Steady and Affordable

Markets in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Quebec have remained more stable and are expected to see continued growth, albeit at a more moderate pace. Alberta, in particular, stands out for its relative affordability, with prices well below the national average.

The First-Time Homebuyer Opportunity

If you're a first-time homebuyer, 2026 could present a unique window of opportunity. After years of being priced out, many are finding that the combination of lower prices and stabilized interest rates has brought homeownership back within reach.

Furthermore, the government has introduced several programs to help first-time buyers, including:

  • First-Time Home Buyers' GST/HST Rebate: A new rebate designed to help you recover some of the taxes paid on a new home.
  • Home Buyers' Plan (HBP): The withdrawal limit from your RRSP has been increased to $60,000, giving you more flexibility to fund your down payment.
  • First Home Savings Account (FHSA): A powerful savings tool that allows you to save for a down payment tax-free, helping you build your nest egg faster.

So, Is It Your Time to Buy?

While the market is showing positive signs, the decision to buy a home is deeply personal. Here are a few questions to ask yourself:

  • Is my income stable and secure? Job security is crucial when taking on a mortgage commitment that could last decades.
  • Have I saved a sufficient down payment? A larger down payment not only reduces your mortgage but can also help you avoid costly mortgage insurance.
  • Is my credit score in good shape? Your credit score directly impacts the mortgage rates you'll qualify for and could save you thousands over the life of your loan.
  • Am I prepared for the long-term costs of homeownership? Beyond the mortgage, you'll need to budget for property taxes, maintenance, insurance, and unexpected repairs.

Navigating the housing market can be complex, but you don't have to do it alone. A trusted mortgage professional can help you understand your options, get pre-approved, and determine if now is the right time for you to enter the market.

Ready to explore your options? Let's talk. I can help you make sense of the market and find a mortgage solution that fits your life and your goals.

RECENT POSTS

How to Finance a Spousal Buyout After Separation or Divorce

By Zach Silverman • September 9, 2026
Mortgage Options During Divorce or Separation: What You Should Know If you’re going through—or considering—a divorce or separation, you may not realize that there are mortgage solutions specifically designed to help one party keep the home . For many people, the family home is their largest asset and where most of their equity is tied up. In situations like this, a spousal buyout program can allow one person to refinance the property and buy out the other party’s share—often up to 95% of the home’s value . This option can work whether you want to keep the home or your former partner does. What Is the Spousal Buyout Program? The spousal buyout program is a refinancing option that allows one owner to purchase the other owner’s share of the property as part of a separation or divorce settlement. In some cases, it can also be used to pay off jointly held debts, as outlined in a legal agreement. Below are some of the most common questions about how the program works. Is a finalized separation agreement required? Yes. Lenders require a signed and finalized separation agreement that clearly outlines how assets and debts are to be divided. This document is essential for approval. Can the funds be used for renovations or personal debts? No. Funds from a spousal buyout can only be used to: Buy out the other owner’s share of equity Pay off joint debts specifically listed in the separation agreement They cannot be used for renovations, personal loans, or unrelated expenses. How much equity can be accessed? The maximum amount available is the amount required to: Buy out the other party’s agreed-upon share of equity Pay off any joint debts listed in the agreement This amount cannot exceed 95% loan-to-value . What is the maximum loan-to-value allowed? The maximum loan-to-value is the lesser of : 95%, or The remaining mortgage balance plus the required buyout and joint debt payout The property must be the primary owner-occupied residence . Do all parties need to be on title? Yes. All individuals involved in the buyout must currently be registered on title. Your solicitor will confirm this through a title search. Does this only apply to married or common-law couples? No. While commonly used for married or common-law couples, the program may also apply to siblings or friends who jointly own a property and need one party to exit the mortgage. These cases are typically reviewed on an exception basis and require insurer approval. If no separation agreement exists, the purchase contract must clearly outline the buyout terms. Is a full appraisal required? Yes. A physical, on-site appraisal is required to confirm the property’s value before the mortgage can be finalized. Final Thoughts This overview covers some of the most common questions about mortgage options during separation or divorce, but every situation is different. Working with an independent mortgage professional gives you access to multiple lenders, specialized programs, and unbiased advice—so you can clearly understand your options and choose what’s best for your future. If you’re navigating a separation and need guidance around keeping or selling the home, feel free to connect anytime. All conversations are handled with discretion and confidentiality, and I’d be happy to walk you through your options.

Bank of Canada Holds Rate at 2.25% — September 2, 2026

By Zach Silverman • September 2, 2026
The Bank of Canada announced today that it is holding its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. While Canada's economic recovery is broadening, a new layer of uncertainty has entered the picture. Here is what happened and what it means for your mortgage.

How to Legally Assign a Construction Mortgage

By Zach Silverman • August 26, 2026
Why More Mortgage Options Matter—Especially for Assignment Purchases One of the biggest advantages of working with an independent mortgage professional is access to choice. Instead of being limited to one lender and one set of products, mortgage brokers work with multiple lenders—each with different guidelines, risk tolerances, and mortgage solutions. That flexibility becomes especially valuable when your situation doesn’t fit neatly into a “standard” box. A great example of this is purchasing new construction through an assignment contract . Why Assignment Purchases Can Be Challenging Assignment purchases are often viewed as higher risk by traditional lenders. Rather than declining these deals outright, many lenders quietly make them difficult by adding layers of conditions, restrictions, or uncertainty. This can lead to delays, frustration, or financing falling apart late in the process. The Good News There are lenders—available exclusively through the broker channel —that have clear, favourable policies for assignment purchases. With the right lender and proper planning, these transactions are absolutely doable. Typical Financing Requirements for Assignment Purchases While every situation is unique, many lenders that allow assignment financing look for the following: Standard purchase qualification, including income verification, credit, and down payment Assignments accepted at either the original purchase price or current market value Minimum 620 credit score , with no prior bankruptcies or consumer proposals The full down payment must come from the purchaser —seller incentives cannot be used Required Documentation To secure financing, lenders typically require: The original purchase agreement signed by all parties The MLS listing (if applicable) The assignment agreement signed by the builder, original purchaser, and new buyer Any side agreements outlining changes to the purchase price A full appraisal to confirm value This list isn’t exhaustive, but it highlights that while assignment purchases require more coordination, they are very achievable with the right lender and guidance. Final Thoughts Assignment contracts can open doors to great opportunities—but only if your financing supports the transaction. This is where access to multiple lenders and specialized policies makes a real difference. If you’re considering purchasing new construction through an assignment, or if you’d like to explore more traditional purchase options, feel free to connect anytime. I’d be happy to walk you through the mortgage products available and help you choose an option that doesn’t limit your financing possibilities.